---
slug: "epa-expected-points-added"
title: EPA
depth_tier: entry
side: UNIVERSAL
category: Analytics
source_id: "ANA-0002"
created: 2026-04-19
updated: 2026-04-19
canonical: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/epa-expected-points-added
aliases:
  - Expected Points Added
  - EPA per play
  - EPA/play
---
# EPA

## Short Definition

Expected Points Added—the change in a team's expected scoring outcome on a single play, the primary measure of play value in modern football analytics.

## Definition

EPA quantifies how much a single play changed a team's expected scoring outcome. Every down, distance, and field position combination carries an expected point value based on historical results—what teams with that exact situation have scored on average going forward. EPA is the difference between the expected points before the snap and after the play ends.

A 10-yard gain on 3rd and 8 from your own 20 might be worth +2.1 EPA—converting a third down and gaining favorable field position. The same 10-yard gain on 1st and 10 from the opponent's 30 might be worth only +0.4 EPA—it's good, but it didn't change the situation dramatically. EPA makes these comparisons possible across all situations.

Positive EPA means the offense helped its team score; negative EPA means it hurt. Over a season, EPA per play tells you how efficiently a team, player, or play type performed independent of volume. An offensive line can be evaluated on the EPA generated on plays where they blocked, not just on yards.

EPA is additive—a drive's total EPA is the sum of every play's EPA. It is the foundation for most modern player valuation models, including wins-above-replacement calculations and scheme efficiency comparisons. Analysts and front offices now use EPA as a primary lens for evaluating everything from individual route runners to defensive coordinators.

## Example

"Third and eight, they convert—that's plus 2.4 EPA on the play. Converting third downs at that EPA rate over a season is what separates elite offenses from average ones. It's not just the conversion, it's the field position they gain doing it."

## Common Confusion

EPA is not a counting stat—comparing total EPA across different snap counts is misleading. EPA per dropback, not total EPA, is the quarterback efficiency metric. A QB with 400 total EPA on 600 dropbacks is less efficient than one with 300 EPA on 400 dropbacks.

## Related

- yac-yards-after-catch
- cpoe
- dvoa
- qbr
- passer-rating

---
Source: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/epa-expected-points-added