---
slug: dvoa
title: DVOA
depth_tier: entry
side: UNIVERSAL
category: Analytics
source_id: "ANA-0003"
created: 2026-04-19
updated: 2026-04-19
canonical: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/dvoa
aliases:
  - "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average"
  - DVOA rating
---
# DVOA

## Short Definition

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average—Football Outsiders' efficiency metric measuring every play against league average, adjusted for opponent quality.

## Definition

DVOA, developed by Football Outsiders, measures the efficiency of a team or player on every play compared to league average, then adjusts for the quality of the opponents faced. A positive offensive DVOA means better than average; negative means worse. Defensive DVOA flips—negative is better, because you want the defense to suppress scoring below the league mean.

The core of DVOA is success rate weighted by the value of each play. A play is successful if it gains enough yards to maintain a reasonable expectation of scoring—roughly 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second, 100% on third or fourth. But DVOA doesn't just count successes; it weights each play by how much it moved the expected scoring needle and adjusts for the defense that was on the other side of it.

DVOA breaks down by phase—offensive DVOA, defensive DVOA, and special teams DVOA—and by situation. Passing DVOA and rushing DVOA measure each component separately. The opponent adjustment is recalculated weekly as the season progresses, meaning early season DVOA stabilizes and becomes more predictive as more data accumulates.

Among analytics metrics, DVOA has one of the strongest historical correlations with future winning percentage, making it widely used not just to explain past performance but to project upcoming games. It is proprietary to Football Outsiders and requires their database to calculate.

## Example

"Their offense ranks 4th in DVOA but 18th against defenses in the top quartile. Strip out the opponent adjustment and they look elite. Add it back in and they look average. That's what DVOA is designed to tell you."

## Common Confusion

DVOA is not a raw efficiency stat—the "defense-adjusted" part means opponent quality is built into the number. A team that produces a 20% offensive DVOA against strong defenses all season is more impressive than one that posted 20% against weak ones. Ignoring the adjustment misses the entire point of what makes DVOA different from simple efficiency metrics.

## Related

- epa-expected-points-added
- pressure-rate
- pass-rush-win-rate
- coverage-grade

---
Source: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/dvoa