---
slug: cpoe
title: CPOE
depth_tier: entry
side: OFFENSE
category: Analytics
source_id: "ANA-0006"
created: 2026-04-19
updated: 2026-04-19
canonical: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/cpoe
aliases:
  - Completion Percentage Over Expected
  - completion percentage above expected
---
# CPOE

## Short Definition

Completion Percentage Over Expected—how a QB's actual completion rate compares to the modeled expectation based on throw difficulty, air yards, and situation.

## Definition

CPOE measures a quarterback's completion percentage relative to what a statistical model predicts he should complete given the exact throws he attempted. The model accounts for air yards, receiver location, down and distance, game situation, and other variables to generate an expected completion rate for each individual pass. CPOE is the difference between the actual completion percentage and that modeled expectation.

A quarterback with +5% CPOE completes 5 percentage points more passes than expected given the difficulty of his throw profile. A quarterback at -3% CPOE is completing fewer passes than a typical NFL quarterback would on the same set of throws. This makes CPOE one of the purest measures of quarterback accuracy because it removes the distortion caused by how often a quarterback is throwing short versus deep.

CPOE became a mainstream metric after ESPN and NFL Next Gen Stats began publishing versions publicly. It is most powerful when combined with air yards—a quarterback who throws deep (high average air yards) and maintains a positive CPOE is doing something very difficult; a quarterback who throws short with a negative CPOE is struggling to complete relatively easy passes.

The metric has one important limitation: it can only account for what was thrown, not what was avoided. A quarterback who frequently takes sacks or throws the ball away rather than attempting difficult passes will have an inflated CPOE because his attempts skew toward easier throws.

## Example

"He's at plus 6.2 CPOE on the season—completing six points more than expected given his throw difficulty. That's the best in the league. He's not completing easy throws; he's making the hard ones."

## Common Confusion

CPOE is not the same as raw completion percentage. A quarterback who completes 68% of his passes at 6 average air yards may have a negative CPOE because the model expects even higher completion rates on short throws. A quarterback at 62% on 13 average air yards may have a strongly positive CPOE because deep throws are expected to complete at 45%. Raw completion percentage without knowing what throws were attempted tells you almost nothing about accuracy.

## Related

- air-yards
- epa-expected-points-added
- passer-rating
- qbr
- true-completion-percentage

---
Source: https://learningfootball.xyz/terms/cpoe